MarketingRx for Jan 1-010 and Jan 8, 2010
The entrepreneur's gut feel for 2010 (part 1)
or 7 gut feel predictions for 2010
Happy New Year! For this week's column, the junior MRxer looked into his magic entrepreneur's gut to give you seven market predictions for 2010. Here we go:
# 1. In 2010 money will continue to flow in from OFWs all over the world. The World Bank got it wrong, says, economist Bernardo Villegas. The self-proclaimed prophet of bloom, in the midst of all the gloom prophets, has already been proven right. OFW money is not tightening. There's even an increase in remittances. Why? Pinoy OFWs have not been among those axed for employment by companies in the worldwide tightening of belts. Villegas has funny anecdotal evidence as well, which he shares when he makes the rounds of the speaking circuit. “Filipinos take a bath every day—sometimes even twice a day.” Was one reason he cited. The hotel and restaurant industry likes the fact that Pinoys smell good. The workers of nationalities that smell like a deodorant-free underarm at the end of a long hot day? Bye bye! Nothing personal, okay?
Because of this, expect the current growth in retail to be sustained. And we're not talking about single digit growth baby, we're looking at double digit growth! There's a reason why the Sys and Ayalas also have double digit grins this year—and that's definitely one of them (albeit a SM Mall going under water during Ondoy for the Sys and a sensational daytime armed robbery in upscale Greenbelt 5 for the Ayalas.)
So what to do with the continued flow of money from our Expat Pinoys? Don't hold back on promoting your real estate projects (especially those that are above sea level). Go get your lion's share of the 13th and 14th month bonuses that were released and remitted. Offer trade-ins for water damaged properties? Hmm. Whatever, the offer is, go and get business.
#2. Pinoy consumers become even more "savings savvy". Despite the continued spending splurge mentioned above, Pinoys will save more. Well, never mind the “kaputting” of Rural Banks owned by the Legacy group that went under at the start of 2009. Banks are reporting that Filipinos are saving more money with double digit growth in the savings deposits. That's a good sign since Pinoys are one of the worst savers in Asia. We are not a nation of conscientious savers. One of the blessings, I guess of the global economic crisis, is that it has taught us to be savvier with our money. Government has done it's small part by doubling the amount that your deposits are insured to P500,000, thereby instilling more than a sliver of confidence in consumers. Still, banks offer investment vehicles that offer rates that are just a little over the inflation rate. With author/speakers like Topaks Colayco (Pera Mo, Paluaguin Mo and One Wealthy Nation founder), Chinkee Tan (For Richer or For Poorer and 'Till Debt Do Us Part), Bo Sanchez (8 Ways to be Truly Rich) and Larry Gamboa (Think Rich Pinoy!) educating more and more consumers on how to invest and be smart with their money—there is opportunity in this area for marketers of legitimate investment vehicles.
"Your money is best invested in a business" is the sentiment of many. Marketers of affordable franchises, especially food cart franchises will boom. So take advantage of the Entrepreneurship fever. On the other hand, Mutual fund offerings will be in again. Companies like Citisec online will benefit. Insurance companies offering investment products other than the usual insurance-alone options will see a boom in 2010. Gold will continue to increase in value and be a safe haven for investors (as compared to the dollar and even the Euro), so companies that will offer investment vehicles based on Gold or gold itself, instead of the usual cash currencies, will literally be Geese that will be laying golden eggs.
#3. Feel Good Luxury Products will continue to do good this 2010. The middle class whose cars and houses were flooded and water damaged during Ondoy and Pepeng, will turn to products that will make them feel good. They will want to treat themselves to something they think “they deserve” because of all that they have been through. It was marketing author and guru, Josiah Go who first mentioned this in his fearless post-Ondoy marketing predictions that he published in his Facebook account (and which my father and I later re-published in our MarketingRx column last October). It is worth echoing here.
Think Royce luxury chocolates from Japan. Have you tasted their Dark Chocolate coated Macadamias? Probably not, because they were still out of stock, the last time I checked. But they do have enough “I-deserve-this” chocolates stocked in their small stores in Rockwell and Greenbelt 5 to serve those who want to feel not just good, but much better after the turmoil of 2009 (from both man made and natural made disasters). Concerts and the movie industry will make a comeback (actually the growth of the movie industry in the US is eye-popping, thanks a lot to movies like Avatar. Consumers in the US are treating themselves to more movies as an escape from the reality of unemployment scares and subprime mortgage realities knocking on their doors.) Here in the Philippines, the movie industry has been so sickly for so long, it is definitely poised for a stunning turn around. Who knows? Wapakman might have been the answer if Dionisia Pacquiao were in it!
Don't forget to register to vote before the new deadline runs out again! We're out of space but not out of well wishes for all of our readers.Have a blessed new year! Send us your comments or questions to marketingrx@pldtdsl.net or drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com
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MarketingRx for Jan 8, 2010
The entrepreneur's gut feel for 2010 (conclusion)
Happy New Year! Last week the junior MRxer looked into his magic gut to give you the first 3 of seven market predictions for 2010.
Here are the remaining 4; here we go:
#4. Let's go tripping! Biyahe na Pinoy! Tourism and travel executives will be smiling. With the so called “democratization” of travel a result of the price wars still going on in the airline industry (thank you Cebu Pacific for starting this!), domestic tourism will continue to also grow by double digits in 2010. Spurred by travel blogs (think of Anton Diaz's Our Awesome Planet blog) and online search for the best deals, Pinoy consumers will be plunking down paychecks into good travel deals. Expect excuses like “time to visit the long lost relatives in Cagayan de Oro, so might as well do some white water rafting” to crop up this year. Literally cool places will be favorite destinations of families again. Baguio will make a comeback (thank you Ad Congress for propping them up with your donation) and Tagaytay's roads will be merrily clogged again this Holy Week. Subic will benefit from the spanking, stateside-like highway also. The addition of the Philippines in NatGeo's List of Must Visit Places in 2010 will add up well for the travel industry. But here's hoping that places like Camsur and Bohol don't go the way of overcrowded-overdeveloped Boracay.
Pinoys will be happy travelling campers this season and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how to take advantage of this.
#5. Consumers as Healthy, Wholesome and Wise. Week-end markets like the Saturday Salcedo Market and the Sunday Legaspi Markets in Makati have been attracting the growing middle class. Films like Food, Inc are wising up consumers to choose what they put into their and their families mouths wisely. Worldwide, Walmart is now marking and labelling which products are organic – and thereby labelling the rest that are not as “inorganic” or less healthy. And we are not just talking about vegetables and fruits. Include meats in that list. What Walmart does, the rest of the retailing world usually follows. So expect a surge in “organic” consciousness. So while it is early, go and make the effort to grow organic and offer meats and food that has not been produced in “farm factories”. Be the first to offer beef and chicken labeled as “Hormone and antibiotic free”. (Just last week, a bill was filed to require even Dog Food marketers to list the ingredients of their products.) Expect new market entrant, Human Nature, which brands itself as "100 percent organic, 100 percent Philippine-grown and 100 percent chemical-free personal care products" to have explosive growth with its decision to go through the direct sales channel (and donate part of the proceeds to its advocacy, Gawad Kalinga. Human Nature is founded by Anna Meloto-Wilk and Camille Meloto, the daughters of GK Founder, Tony Meloto.) We received their products as Christmas gifts from our staff and their affordable and SLS-Free shampoos and lotions could give Body Shop a run for their money.
Seize this segment of the market and be first in it. Please. I will be your first customer and most viral of advocates.
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#6. Consumers will shop beyond the traditional. This means that “non traditional” distribution and sales channels will continue to grow thanks to more Filipinos trusting in the channels itself. Think of the internet and the thousands of Mom and Pop Multiply-type makeshift e-commerce sites. Think of the fastfood chains set up for internet ordering. Think of the movie ticket and concert ticket reservations online (more than half of Charice Pempengco's launch concert at the MOA recently was sold via Friendster). Ayala Mall's Sureseats online reservation system allowed this writer to buy tickets online 6 weeks before the Pacquiao-Cotto fight.) Christmas pasalubong shoppers will look online for special deals. Now that the online population of the Philippines has doubled (from 10% to more than 20%), you can't ignore this anymore.
Finally, you can't count out the Direct Selling channel. Look at this non-traditional channel to sustain growth beyond Christmas. Just think of FernC, the vitamin C supplement that is now a billion peso brand thanks to its direct selling approach. This is something that it's older competitors have failed to do via the traditional Mercury Drug approach. At an international publishing conference in Kenya, I met the marketing director of a Brazilian publishing firm that has sold hundreds of thousands of books, including trendy pink leather bibles for girls, through direct selling giant, Avon. The market in the Philippines is ripe for that kind of traditional products through non-traditional selling channels.
#7. Manny Pacquiao will knock out Floyd Mayweather (in court or in the ring). IF the biggest fight in boxing history pushes through this year, Filipino consumers (around the world) will be in a carry over fiesta mode from Pacquiao's victory. Never mind that his Wapakman is a flop or that he won't be able to spend his way into winning a seat in congress in May. (Win or lose Manny should bring home a good chunk of the US$25M that he is reportedly guaranteed for the fight.)Think of this win over Mayweather as the equivalent of giving San Mig Coffee to a hyperactive 2 year old boy. That's what the Pacman's win (and his election spending spree) will do for the national economy and psyche.
Manny's winning always gives us a break from bad news and bad numbers. Remember the 4 back to back typhoons that devastated the Philippines in 2009? Thanks to the Pacman's victory last 14th of November, the country all but forgotten those numbers—albeit even for a day or two. The victory has given us the permission to smile wide, open the wallet somewhat wider and spend to celebrate. And that always bodes well for the food and entertainment industry.
With election money expected to pour in the coming months leading to May, we hope that our inflation rate stays at the lowest is has ever been in more than 20 plus years. And if we elect a president that is smarter than Pumba and as brave and non-corruptible like Simba, then next Christmas Holiday season in 2010, we can all continue to say, as the Kenyans say in Swahili, “Hakuna Matata!” (No worries!).
Have a blessed new year! Send us your comments or questions to marketingrx@pldtdsl.net or drnedmarketingrx@gmail.com
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